Date: 13 October 2025
Category: Economic Development
The world’s poorest and most vulnerable communities are facing mounting pressure from trade instability, heavy debt burdens, and declining investment, according to a new warning from the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
The statement comes ahead of UNCTAD 16, the organization’s largest ministerial meeting in four years, which will take place from 20–24 October 2025 in Geneva. The high-level event will bring together ministers, economists, and industry leaders to explore concrete strategies to restore global economic stability, relieve debt distress, and redirect investment toward real human and sustainable development.
“We are witnessing a transformational shift in multilateral trade,” said Rebeca Grynspan, UNCTAD’s Secretary-General. “Decisions made during UNCTAD 16 will influence the direction of trade and development policy for years to come.”
Restoring Predictability in Global Trade
Ms. Grynspan cautioned that policy uncertainty and rapid shifts in trade rules can be even more disruptive than tariffs — discouraging investment, eroding competitiveness, and eliminating jobs in developing economies.
Despite the geopolitical turbulence, she noted a degree of resilience in early 2025:
- Global trade grew by approximately $500 billion in the first half of the year.
- Goods trade increased by 5%, services by 6%, and South–South trade (excluding China) by 9%.
However, she warned that confidence must be restored if smaller economies are to plan and invest effectively in the years ahead.
The Escalating Debt Crisis
The financial outlook remains deeply concerning.
“Around 3.4 billion people live in countries that spend more on servicing their debt than on health and education,” Ms. Grynspan said.
She called for the creation of a fairer and more predictable financial system, highlighting several initiatives under discussion, including:
- Establishing a Borrowers’ Club to enhance the negotiating power of developing countries.
- Expanding access to affordable, long-term capital to support sustainable growth.
- Building on outcomes from the Financing for Development Conference held in July.
Rethinking Investment Priorities
Ms. Grynspan also warned that foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing nations is not only declining but remains overly concentrated in a few traditional industries and regions.
“The goal is not just to attract investment, but to attract the right kind of investment,” she emphasized.
That means prioritizing sectors that create long-term social and environmental value, including:
- Sustainable infrastructure and renewable energy
- Healthcare, education, and clean water access
- Agriculture, food security, and digital transformation
She also pointed out that digital trade and data flows now underpin over 60% of global GDP growth, but warned that excessive market concentration in cloud computing and AI threatens to exclude developing nations unless inclusivity becomes a policy priority.
UNCTAD 16: A Defining Moment for Global Cooperation
The Geneva conference will host around 100 countries, including 60 ministers and 40 vice-ministers, with 1,700 participants expected. Discussions will focus on trade, finance for development, investment flows, supply chains, and the role of emerging technologies — including AI — in building a more inclusive global economy.
The UN Secretary-General is also expected to deliver a special address during the conference.
“Trade, finance, investment, and technology are the four pillars of development,” Ms. Grynspan said. “We must address them together to ensure the global economy works for everyone — especially for those who are most vulnerable.”
